Montana Commerce director: State’s ‘on the move’

Montana is heading forward economically, state Commerce Director Tony Preite http://commerce.mt.gov/ told 75 local economic development officials Thursday at a Great Falls conference.

Rural and urban officials later agreed that state programs were helping recruit business.

"Montana is on the move, there’s no question about it," Preite told members of the Montana Economic Developers Association http://medamembers.org/ meeting at the Heritage Inn.

By PETER JOHNSON
Tribune Staff Writer

Full Story: http://www.greatfallstribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071102/NEWS01/711020321/1002

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UM ECONOMIST: MONTANANS POSITIVE ABOUT ECONOMY

MISSOULA –

Montana consumers are much more upbeat about the economy than their counterparts elsewhere in the country, probably because of the state’s continuing economic growth, a University of Montana economist said.

Paul Polzin, director of UM’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research, reports that the Montana Index of Consumer Sentiment for summer/fall 2007 was 131, equaling its all-time high reported in early 2006. This peak is well above the values 100 to 109 reported during the last U.S. recession of 2000-01.

In contrast, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment suggests U.S. consumers as a whole have become increasingly downcast, perhaps reflecting the collapse in the housing market. The U.S. index was 80.9 in October, down from 90.4 in July and 88.4 in March.

The Montana Index of Consumer Sentiment rose from 128 in both late 2006 and early 2007 to the record 131 in summer/fall 2007. Polzin said this increase is probably within the margin of error, and it would be safe to conclude that Montana consumers remained very optimistic throughout this period.

Polzin attributes Montana’s consumer optimism to a strong economy — buoyed by the natural resource industries and construction — combined with a relatively mild local impact of the bursting housing bubble. Polzin said preliminary data show Montana house prices to be holding stronger than the national average and the exposure to sub-prime mortgages to be less than elsewhere in the country.

The Montana Index of Consumer Sentiment is based on a BBER telephone survey. It is comparable to the widely quoted University of Michigan index and is calculated from five questions concerning different aspects of the economy. This survey was conducted from Aug. 26 to Oct. 11 and includes the responses of 552 Montana adults.

Contact: Paul Polzin, director, UM Bureau of Business and Economic Research, 406-243-5113

http://news.umt.edu/index.asp?sec=1&too=100&eve=8&dat=10/31/2007&npa=1887