Computers may displace humans in occupations accounting for 60 percent of the current workforce by 2030
| August 3, 2007 |  View for printing |
This paper describes an approach to projecting changes in skill demand that will result from increases in computer abilities over the next few decades.
Rather than the typical approach of extrapolating from recent changes in skill demand—which focuses on older computer techniques that have already been broadly applied—this approach uses current research in computer science to indicate what new computer abilities could be applied broadly in the future. These new computer abilities are viewed through the lens of the human abilities assessed by the O*NET database of occupational characteristics.
A pilot effort in applying the approach suggests that computers may displace humans in occupations accounting for 60 percent of the current workforce by 2030. Such change would require broad increases in workforce skills.
The pilot effort suggests it is feasible to analyze how current computer abilities align with occupational requirements as a way of understanding likely future changes in skill demand. The paper concludes by arguing that this general approach should be used to mount a serious and sustained effort to project and help prepare for the extensive changes in work that are likely to occur as computer abilities increase over the coming decades.
Stuart W. Elliott1 National Research Council
Full Paper: http://www7.nationalacademies.org/cf ... t_Paper.pdf
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