The Missoulian’s "Western Montana InBusiness Monthly" Outlook 2006 – New beginnings and optimistic outlooks

New beginnings and optimistic outlooks

New Year’s Day has always been one of my favorite holidays. Lazy, but energized. Low key, but full of import.

By SHERRY DEVLIN – Editor, Missoulian and Western Montana InBusiness Monthly

Even as a child, I loved Jan. 1. I’d read a favorite book, often the same one year after year. I’d make a list of ever-so-serious resolutions. And when my mom brought the traditional bowl of black-eyed peas to the dinner table, I’d make a slew of secret wishes as I gobbled my portion – believing the peas would indeed, as my dad had promised, bring us a year’s supply of good luck.

So it is with similarly high hopes that I write this introduction to the annual Outlook edition of Western Montana InBusiness Monthly. This is my first edition as editor of InBusiness. It’s a job I inherited when I succeeded Mike McInally as editor of the Missoulian, and one I relish.

Over the past 12 months, we’ve brought an increasingly substantial monthly offering to faithful InBusiness readers – in-depth reports by writer Tyler Christensen on the most important economic issues and trends facing western Montana.

This month, Tyler and a number of Missoulian reporters teamed up to provide a look at the year-ahead forecast for the state’s key economic sectors: agriculture, natural resources, tourism, manufacturing, transportation, health care, the arts and nonprofits, retail, construction and small business. It’s a fascinating report.

The fastest-growing piece of Montana’s economy – in terms of employee numbers – is the professional, scientific and technical services sector. Less than 17,000 workers are employed in professional services now, but the industry is growing at a rate of 5.6 percent a year – which means another 1,000 jobs in 2006.

Other industries expected to hire more than 1,500 workers in the year ahead are educational and health services, professional and business services, and transportation, trade and utilities.

Nowhere is the pace of change more frenetic than in the health-care industry, where "everything is on the table," according to one industry leader. Technologies are changing; so too are government policies. And political swings routinely turn things on their head.

Nowhere is the potential for economic growth more wide open than in the exploration and development of Montana’s energy resources. The upside of high energy prices is that high-price environments tend to open the door for more production and exploration – and Montana is well-positioned to take advantage of those opportunities.

The downside, of course, is that high at-the-pump prices continue to empty our wallets. While energy prices have dropped somewhat since the double-whammy of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, there’s every reason to believe they’ll continue to pinch pocketbooks in the year to come.

Energy costs won’t, however, slow Montana’s two big transportation sectors – if early reports hold true. Airline and trucking businesses gave ever-so-optimistic year-ahead forecasts to Missoulian business reporter Robert Struckman.

Barry "Spook" Stang, executive vice president of the Montana Motor Carriers Association, said 2006 will likely bring more growth and mergers in the trucking industry – which accounts for 30,000 Montana jobs.

And Cris Jensen, the director of Missoula International Airport, has a plan to grow the number of airlines that serve the Five Valleys. He’ll hit the road in 2006 to petition airlines to begin or expand service to Missoula.

There’s good news, too, from Montana’s nonprofit sector, a heavyweight in the state’s economy. Every year brings more, and a greater diversity of, nonprofit organizations to Montana.

In Tyler’s report, local organizations tell how they’re adjusting their fundraising strategies to respond to the increased competition for limited resources – and to make sure they’re heard over the many calls for help from outside the state.

As we march across the border of 2006, I urge you to spend some time with our Outlook edition. I learned a lot from the reports that follow; I know you will too.

And while you’re at it, indulge yourself in a New Year’s ritual or two. Make a resolution – and make it suitably impossible to keep. Read a favorite book. Cook a giant, salty, good-luck-producing bowl of black-eyed peas.

I’ll meet you back here in February and we’ll compare notes.

Full Issue: http://www.mtinbusiness.com/inbiz-0601/